The success of public-private partnership (PPP)
investment scheme in water supply provision can not be separated from the
implementation of risk management concept within the project. Proper risk
management processes ensure a profitable operation to the private party as well
as considerable benefit to the public interest. In risk management, risk
analysis is a key step to understand the risk involved in such scheme and
subsequently in defining appropriate risk management action. The paper presents
a risk analysis approach integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods
in assessing the feasibility of investing water supply infrastructure through
PPP concession contract in Indonesia.
Qualitative risk analysis is conducted using risk ranking-at-confidence level
method to determine the priority risks, which are subsequently analysed using
latin hypercube sampling cash flow simulation. The result of the analysis shows
that uncertainty in tariff change (water price), non revenue water, and
exchange rate fluctuation are significant risk factors. However, the impact of
those factors is not always damaging to the investment, as there are cases
where certain events lead to positive impact. Risk prioritizing should be
conducted to prevent unnecessary exaggeration of risk notion in the investment
scheme.
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