Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Investment in Public–Private Partnership Scheme for Water Supply in Indonesia

The success of public-private partnership (PPP) investment scheme in water supply provision can not be separated from the implementation of risk management concept within the project. Proper risk management processes ensure a profitable operation to the private party as well as considerable benefit to the public interest. In risk management, risk analysis is a key step to understand the risk involved in such scheme and subsequently in defining appropriate risk management action. The paper presents a risk analysis approach integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods in assessing the feasibility of investing water supply infrastructure through PPP concession contract in Indonesia. Qualitative risk analysis is conducted using risk ranking-at-confidence level method to determine the priority risks, which are subsequently analysed using latin hypercube sampling cash flow simulation. The result of the analysis shows that uncertainty in tariff change (water price), non revenue water, and exchange rate fluctuation are significant risk factors. However, the impact of those factors is not always damaging to the investment, as there are cases where certain events lead to positive impact. Risk prioritizing should be conducted to prevent unnecessary exaggeration of risk notion in the investment scheme.

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Challenges in Implementing the Public Sector Comparator For Bid Evaluation of PPP Infrastructure Project Investment

The public private partnership (PPP) is indisputable and international experience has indicated that cooperation between the public and private sectors can be a powerful incentive to achieve value for money in infrastructure project development. However, the appropriate risk allocation between the public and private sectors is the key requirement for the achievement of value for money. Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is used for demonstrating potential value for money of the proposed PPP project. PSC enables a financial comparison including costs/gains and risks, and can be an alternative evaluation method which includes risk transfer aspect to facilitate risk negotiation properly. On the other hand, there are challenges in the development of PSC due to controversy regarding manipulation issue, reality of risk transfer in practice, and public sector ability to perform risk management methodology. An extensive literature review was conducted to elaborate some urgency of used PSC and its controversy in practice. It includes some lessons learned in the development of PSC such as the need for structuring risk management application, focusing on priority risk, improving the accuracy of risk-return analysis, realizing the allocation of risk, and enhancing risk management capability.

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A Comparative Review of Quantitative VFM Methodology for PPP Infrastructure Project in Indonesia and Australia

The Government of Indonesia (GoI) increasingly relies on the private sector financing to build and operate infrastructures through public private partnership (PPP) schemes. However, PPP does not automatically provide the solution for the financing scheme due to value for money (VFM) issues. The procurement authority must show whether a PPP proposal is the optimal solution that provides best VFM outcome. The paper presents a literature review of comparing quantitative VFM methodology for PPP infrastructure project procurement in Indonesia and Australia. Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is used to assess the potential project VFM quantitatively in Australia. In Indonesia, the PSC has not been applied, where the PPP procurement authority tends to utilize a common project evaluation method that ignores the issues of risk. Unlike the conventional price bid evaluation, the PSC enables a financial comparison including costs/gains and risks. Since the construction of PSC is primarily on risk management approach, it can facilitate risk negotiation processes between the involved parties. The study indicates that the quantitative VFM methodology of PSC is potentially applicable in Indonesia for water supply sector. Various supporting regulations are available that emphasize the importance of VFM and risk management in infrastructure investment. However, the study also reveals a number of challenges that need to be anticipated, such as the need of a more comprehensive PPP policy at both central and local government level, a more specific legal instrument for bidding evaluation method and the issue of institutional capacity development in PPP Units at the local level.

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Assessing Risk Management Capability of Public Sector Organizations Related to PPP Scheme Development for Water Supply in Indonesia

The success of Public Private Partnership (PPP) for water supply investment is inseparable from the capability of risk management of the parties within the project. This study investigates the risk management capability of Indonesian local public sector organizations that are potentially involved in PPP schemes for water supply. A risk management maturity model based assessment tool probing the culture, process, experience, application and partnership aspects is used in the survey. The model describes risk management capability in four levels (adhoc, initial, competent, excellent). The survey shows that their risk management capability is still in-average at the initial stage (level 2), meaning that the adopted risk management postures are mostly supported only by unstructured, ad-hoc and non-formal processes. The result of this study can help decision makers in choosing appropriate risk management methods and tools to be used by the local public authorities for managing risks in PPP schemes.

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Approaches to Private Participation in Water Services: A Toolkit

Improving the services these people receive is vital, and a purpose to which the development community is committed. The Millennium Development Goals include halving the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water by 2015. The goals announced in Johannesburg in 2002 call for halving the proportion of people without access to basic sanitation as well. Improving water services is accordingly a critical part of the strategy of the World Bank and the two other organizations that have funded this Toolkit—the Public–Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility and the Bank–Netherlands Water Partnership.

This Toolkit aims to help developing country governments that are interested in using private firms to help expand access to safe water and sanitation services at reasonable cost. Specifically, it aims to help them and their advisers design arrangements that maximize the benefits for their countries, provinces, or municipalities. It is intended to complement other work being undertaken by the World Bank and others on options for improving public provision of water services. Instead of identifying a single best approach to addressing the issues it discusses, the Toolkit presents options and discusses their main advantages and disadvantages. In so doing, it aims to give advisers and policy makers the information they need to make decisions, while taking account of local circumstances and the policy makers’ objectives.

Private participation in water and sanitation (or “water services” for short) can take many forms. This Toolkit focuses on arrangements that involve a private firm in the delivery of services to households and businesses, including management contracts, leases, affermages, concessions, and divestitures. It does not consider arrangements under which private companies provide bulk water or wastewater treatment to a government-owned utility.Nor does it consider arrangements under which private companies provide selected services—such as billing and collection— to a utility that is still publicly managed.

The nine chapters of this toolkit as follows:

Chapter 1 provides an overview of private participation in water services and what it can be expected to achieve.

Chapter 2 provides an overview of the process governments typically follow when introducing private participation.

Chapter 3 discusses ways of involving customers, potential customers, and other stakeholders in the design of arrangements and ways of distributing the benefits and costs of private participation to increase stakeholder support.

Chapter 4 considers some of the options governments have for the water sector as a whole, such as the appropriate geographic aggregation of utilities and the allocation of responsibilities among different tiers of government.

Chapter 5 considers the options the government has for setting targets relating to coverage and quality; the implications of those targets for the cost of service; options for supplementing tariff revenue with government subsidies; and some implications for financing.

Chapter 6 provides advice on the allocation of risks and responsibilities among customers, the operator, and the government, including tariff-adjustment and other rules that effect the allocation of risk.

Chapter 7 considers the choice and design of institutions—including courts, arbitral panels, independent experts, and regulatory agencies—that will interpret and apply the rules over the life of the arrangements.

Chapter 8 considers which legal instruments (laws, regulations, and contracts) should embody the rules, recognizing that the parties will sometimes have an incentive to break the rules.

Chapter 9 reviews the approaches governments can use to select the operator.

Year: 2006

Pages: 504

Publisher: Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility

Language: English

ISBN:  0-8213-6111-2

e-ISBN: 0-8213-6112-0

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Spektrum Kerjasama Pemerintah dan Swasta dalam Pembangunan Infrastruktur

Gambar berikut mengilustrasikan cara pandang pengadaan infrastruktur sebagai suatu continuum, dimulai dari pendekatan pengadaan secara tradisional yang dibiayai sepenuhnya oleh Pemerintah mengunakan metode pengadaan yang memisahkan pengadaan untuk kegiatan disain dan pelaksanaan konstruksi atau DBB (design/bid/build), serta metode rancang bangun atau DB (design/build) yang menggabungkan pengadaan kegiatan disain dan pelaksanaan konstruksi, hingga penyelenggaraan sepenuhnya oleh pihak swasta melalui divestasi yang merupakan bentuk dari privatisasi penuh (full privatization).

KPS berada di dalam wilayah di antara pengadaan proyek secara tradisional (DBB/DB) hingga privatisasi penuh. Dengan mengabaikan opsi divestasi yang merupakan bentuk privatisasi, sebagai suatu spektrum dari berbagai kemungkinan ikatan kontraktual, KPS untuk tujuan pembangunan dan/atau pengelolaan infrastruktur bisa diupayakan dalam jangka pendek (short-term) untuk waktu kurang dari 5 (lima) tahun, menengah (mid-term) hingga 15 tahun atau panjang (long-term) hingga lebih dari 25 tahun. Istilah ”sektor publik (public sector)” yang menyertai istilah KPS adalah merujuk pada Pemerintah sebagai representasi publik, yang bertanggungjawab dalam penyelenggaraan infrastruktur, baik dilakukan secara langsung maupun melalui badan-badan layanan umum (public bodies). Pemerintah bisa jadi unit atau departemen Pemerintah Pusat, Pemerintah Daerah (Pemda) (Propinsi/ Kabupaten/Kota), termasuk Badan Usaha Milik Daerah (BUMD) seperti Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum (PDAM). Sementara sektor swasta bisa berbentuk perusahaan tunggal atau konsorsium (gabungan beberapa perusahaan), termasuk juga NGO (non-governmental organization).

Secara ringkas, Kontrak Pelayanan (Service Contract) merupakan kerjasama di mana mitra swasta diberi tanggungjawab melaksanakan suatu jasa pelayanan dalam suatu jangka waktu tertentu, misal perawatan jaringan, pencatatan meter, dan penagihan rekening. Kontrak Kelola (Management Contract) adalah kerjasama di mana pemerintah menyerahkan tanggungjawab kepada mitra swasta dalam menyediakan jasa manajemen untuk pengelolaan dan pengusahaan kegiatan operasi dan pemeliharaan, termasuk tanggung jawab pengambilan keputusan dalam pelaksanaan kegiatannya. Kontrak Sewa (Lease Contract) merupakan kerjasama di mana pemerintah menyewakan suatu fasilitas pelayanan kepada mitra swasta untuk dioperasikan dan dipelihara. Mitra swasta menyediakan modal kerja untuk memelihara dan meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektivitas pelayanan selama masa operasi tertentu. Sementara Kontak BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) merupakan kerjasama di mana pemerintah memberikan hak (disebut juga dengan konsesi) kepada mitra swasta untuk melakukan investasi dengan membangun suatu fasilitas tertentu di wilayah yang belum ada sama sekali fasilitas (greenfield project) yang selanjutnya dioperasikan selama masa konsesi, dan pada akhir masa konsesi seluruh fasilitas yang dibangun oleh mitra swasta akan diserahkan kepada pemerintah.

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Regulasi Terkait Kerjasama Pemerintah dan Swasta dalam Pembangunan Infrastruktur di Indonesia

Setidaknya terdapat lima peraturan khusus KPS dalam pembangunan infrastruktur di Indoneia, yaitu Peraturan Presiden (Perpres) No. 67/2005 tentang Kerjasama Pemerintah dengan Badan Usaha dalam Penyediaan Infrastruktur, Perpres No. 13/2010 tentang Perubahan Perpres No. 67/2005 – keduanya mengatur tentang ketentuan umum KPS – serta peraturan mengenai prosedur penyediaan dukungan pemerintah, yaitu Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (Permenkeu) No. 38/2006 tentang Petunjuk Pelaksanaan Pengendalian dan Pengelolaan Risiko Atas Penyediaan Infrastruktur, Peraturan Menteri Koordinator Bidang Ekonomi No. 4/2006 tentang Metodologi Evaluasi Proyek Infratruktur KPS yang Memerlukan Dukungan Pemerintah, dan Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) No. 35/2009 tentang Penyertaan Modal Negara Republik Indonesia Untuk Pendirian Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) di Bidang Penjaminan Infrastruktur.

Perpres No. 67/2005 mengatur tentang KPS untuk proyek-proyek infrastruktur tertentu, termasuk penyediaan air minum. KPS dapat dilaksanakan berdasarkan permohonan atau tidak dimohonkan namun pada umumnya penyeleksian terhadap badan usaha harus dilakukan melalui proses tender secara terbuka. Proyek yang “Solicited” diidentifikasi dan disiapkan oleh Pemerintah, sedangkan “Unsolicited” diidentifikasi dan diajukan kepada Pemerintah oleh suatu Badan Usaha. Lembaga Pemerintah untuk KPS dapat diadakan baik di tingkat regional ataupun nasional. Proyek KPS dapat dilaksanakan berdasarkan perijinan Pemerintah ataupun melalui Perjanjian Kerjasama (PK). Pemerintah dapat memberikan dukungan perpajakan dan/atau non-pajak untuk meningkatkan kelayakan suatu proyek infrastruktur. Proyek ini harus terstruktur untuk dapat mengalokasikan risiko yang mampu dikelola secara maksimal oleh pihak pelaksana.

Perpres No. 13/2010 merupakan revisi untuk menggantikan Perpres No. 67/2005, dimaksudkan untuk memberikan kepastian dan meningkatkan daya tarik sektor swasta untuk berinvestasi di bidang infrastruktur, untuk melakukan sinkronisasi dengan peraturan yang berlaku terakhir pada penyediaan infrastruktur, dan untuk menjelaskan seluruh proses KPS seperti dukungan pemerintah, proses tender, menambahkan nilai proyek yang tidak diminta, dan pengaturan pengalihan saham (BPPSPAM, 2010). Perpres No. 13/2010 telah menjawab beberapa substansi yang berhubungan dengan persaingan bisnis seperti penentuan tarif, standar kinerja, sanksi dan mekanisme pengawasan terhadap mitra swasta harus diatur dalam perjanjian tersebut, dan hak dan kewajiban para pihak (termasuk alokasi risiko).

Permenkeu No. 38/2006 menjabarkan kondisi-kondisi dan proses untuk mengusahakan adanya dukungan pemerintah, antara lain penjaminan-penjaminan. Pemerintah dapat memberikan jaminan terhadap tiga jenis risiko, yaitu: Risiko Politik (pengambilalihan aset, perubahan peraturan, dan pembatasan konversi mata uang dan larangan repatriasi dana), Risiko Kinerja Proyek (keterlambatan dalam proses pembebasan lahan, peningkatan biaya perolehan tanah, perubahan dalam spesifikasi kontrak kerja, penundaan atau adanya penurunan kontrak penyesuaian atas tarif, keterlambatan ijin untuk memulai kegiatan), dan Risiko Permintaan (pendapatan riil yang berada di bawah pendapatan minimum yang dijamin karena adanya permintaan yang lebih rendah dari kontrak).

Sementara Peraturan Menteri Koordinator Bidang Ekonomi No. 4/2006 mensyaratkan bahwa permintaan dukungan harus dimuat pada bagian studi kelayakan. Hal ini lebih tegas diatur dari pada pengaturan awal studi kelayakan sebagaimana dimuat dalam Permenkeu No. 38/2006. Kedua peraturan tersebut menentukan bahwa dokumen lain harus diajukan untuk meminta dukungan, termasuk format kerjasama, rencana anggaran, hasil dari konsultasi publik dan lainnya. Untuk mengelola jaminan-jaminan tersebut Pemerintah telah mendirikan PT. Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (PT. PII). Upaya ini diharapkan dapat mengurangi pengeluaran biaya pembangunan proyek infrastruktur KPS dengan meningkatkan kualitas dan kredibilitas proyek KPS, serta membantu Pemerintah untuk mengelola risiko pajak dengan lebih baik dengan adanya penjamian ini. 

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